What is the Bias Score and how is it calculated?

The Bias Score compares a team's win rate under a specific referee to their baseline win rate (45%). A negative score suggests the team performs worse than average under that referee.

What sample size is considered reliable?

We recommend at least 5 games for initial patterns and 10+ games for high confidence.

← Back to Home•View All Teams for B Toner →•View All Referees for Carlisle →

🧑‍⚖️ Referee Analysis

B TonervsCarlisle

Analysis based on 15 matches since 2000

* Note: Detailed card statistics for matches before 2005 may be incomplete.

Wins

Draws

Losses

When B Toner officiates Carlisle matches, the statistics reveal a significantly positive pattern. Based on 15 matches spanning multiple seasons, our comprehensive analysis shows Carlisle achieves a 66.7% win rate under B Toner, compared to the 45% baseline expected for teams at this level. This positive 21.7 percentage point difference suggests a meaningful pattern worth examining. The data includes detailed card statistics, match outcomes, and historical trends to provide football fans, bettors, and analysts with evidence-based insights into this referee-team dynamic.

✅FAVORABLE RECORD

✅ FAVORABLE RECORD

This team has an above-average win rate when this referee officiates.

Bias Score

+21.7%

Matches Analyzed

✅

Favorable Pattern Detected

With a bias score of +21.7%, Carlisle has historically performed 22 percentage points better under B Toner than their average. This favorable pattern across 15 matches could be valuable information for match predictions and betting strategies.

The Bias Meter™

Bias Level+21.7%

Bias AgainstNeutralFavorable

Match History

15 matches under this referee

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Cards	Division
12 Apr 2025	Morecambe(A)	2 - 0	WIN	🟨 2	League Two
27 Apr 2024	Derby(A)	0 - 2	LOSS	🟨 1	League One
2 Sept 2023	Shrewsbury(H)	2 - 0	WIN	🟨 2	League One
14 Feb 2023	Mansfield(H)	0 - 4	LOSS	🟨 3	League Two
1 Jan 2022	Scunthorpe(A)	1 - 0	WIN	🟨 1	League Two
3 Oct 2020	Barrow(H)	1 - 0	WIN	🟨 3🟥 1	League Two
29 Dec 2019	Walsall(A)	2 - 1	WIN	🟨 1	League Two
9 Mar 2019	Swindon(H)	2 - 1	WIN	🟨 1	League Two
1 Jan 2019	Morecambe(A)	2 - 0	WIN	🟨 2	League Two
21 Aug 2018	Port Vale(H)	2 - 1	WIN	—	League Two
28 Apr 2018	Port Vale(A)	2 - 1	WIN	🟨 1	League Two
11 Nov 2017	Yeovil(H)	4 - 0	WIN	—	League Two
17 Apr 2017	Stevenage(H)	1 - 1	DRAW	🟨 2	League Two
10 Sept 2016	Leyton Orient(H)	2 - 2	DRAW	🟨 2	League Two
16 Apr 2016	Cambridge(A)	0 - 0	DRAW	🟨 3🟥 2	League Two

Frequently Asked Questions

Detailed Statistics

Win Rate (Under Ref)66.7%

Baseline Win Rate45%

Bias Score+21.7%

Cards for Carlisle

🟨 Yellows / Game1.60

🟥 Reds / Game0.20

Cards for Opponents

🟨 Opp Yellows / Game2.07

🟥 Opp Reds / Game0.20

💰

Betting Outlook

TIPSTER INSIGHT

🟥

RED CARD RISK

Red card frequency: 0.2 per game

Higher than average dismissal rate in this matchup.

⚠️ This is statistical analysis, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.

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